Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
