It was two months ago that Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed as Unai Emery berated him for missing a through-ball. Back then, as Villa failed to win in six, the question was whether his displays were an indicator or a cause of Villa's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, though, the manager's outburst was far more favourable. As the England international drilled in his second to reclaim Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician ripped off his coat, spread his arms and roared. The Birmingham club marched on to ten wins in a row , having failed to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, find themselves a mere three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Serious Title Contenders?
That’s a rather hard question to answer. The historical record, the perceived status of the club, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they've rarely been entirely convincing in many games, even as the positive results have stacked up.
As per the data, twice all season has the team had an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a club that have strung together ten consecutive victories, the Villans seem weirdly vulnerable – but right now the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach looks like to exchange chances with an opponent and wait for their star man to save the day with two crisp finishes. This occurred against Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and again versus United.
Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, arced precisely inside the upright from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opponents had a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. The team has secured their last eight victories by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those matches.
A statistical correction may well be the most significant challenge they have to face over the coming weeks. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot keep on thrashing the ball into the top corner forever.
Potential for Growth
Could it be another reality in which, instead of luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players may yet return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the player he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are due to regain fitness, bolstering a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
But then, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Aston Villa would be third at Christmas. And without a doubt earlier this season, no one envisioned the young forward as the year closed would be leading a title charge while establishing himself as an essential England player.
The current run should be enjoyed exactly since it appears so improbable. When the match-winner positioned himself before the North End when the game ended leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These spells are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
