Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
